In January-December 2017, the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in agricultural organizations increased by 7% to 10.8 million tons in live weight, follows from Rosstat materials. Including the production of pigs increased by 7.1% to 3.7 million tons in live weight, by the end of December industrial producers had 19.7 million pigs, which is 8.3% more than a year earlier.
According to the Director General of the National Union of Pig Producers (NSS), Yuri Kovalev, the growth accelerated sharply in the fourth quarter of last year. So, in October it was 12%, and in December - 13% compared to the same month of 2016. “This is due to the fact that it was at this time that the complexes, the construction decisions of which were made from the second half of 2014 under the program of the so-called accelerated import substitution, began to reach their maximum capacity,” Kovalev told Agroinvestor earlier. In total, according to the Union’s estimates, since the end of 2014, large companies have invested about 200 billion rubles in the pig-breeding sector. “And now, starting from the fourth quarter, these investment projects are at full capacity,” Kovalev said. In this regard, according to the forecast of the NSS, in 2018 the growth of pork production will be approximately in the same parameters as in 2017.
In December 2017, poultry production in agricultural organizations increased by 5.4% to 544 thousand tons. Thus, over the year the growth rate of production of this type of meat was estimated at 7.8%: in January-December industrial poultry production amounted to 6.1 million tonnes in live weight against 5.7 million tonnes in 2016 According to Maxim Nikitochkin, Project Manager of the AIC “NEO Center” practice, as well as in pig farming, the growth of industrial poultry farming is due to a significant number of implemented and ongoing investment projects.
As for the cattle, its industrial production, according to Rosstat, over the past year increased by 1.8% to 935 thousand tons in live weight. At the same time, the number of cattle in agricultural enterprises last year continued to decline, decreasing by another 1.1% to 8.2 million animals, including cows - by 0.9% to 3.3 million heads. The production of sheep and goats remained almost at the level of 2016 and amounted to 33.3 thousand tons, while by the end of the year the number of livestock decreased by 1.7% to 4.1 million heads.
Remains increased almost 1.5 times
Along with the increase in production of livestock and poultry, the remnants of meat in agricultural organizations also grew. By the end of December, they were on average 45.4% higher than those of the end of 2016. Moreover, if the beef remains almost remained at the level of last year, having decreased only by 0.6% to 568 tons, the remains of pork more than doubled to 3.7 thousand tons, and poultry meat - by 44.6% to 51 , 6 thousand tons
At the same time, the increase in reserves does not have a pronounced annual dynamics in the regions, Nikitochkin notes. So, according to him, the remains of pork make up only 0.05% of its annual production, besides, their growth by 65% is provided by one region - the Stavropol Territory. “The remains of pork in the region in December 2016 were zero, and as of December 23, 2017, they have increased significantly. This fact is related to measures to prevent African swine fever, which could have caused a short-term increase in stocks from local enterprises, ”Nikitochkin suggested. An increase in broiler meat stocks is not significant for the entire market, the expert is sure. “The all-Russian growth of reserves by 50% is ensured only by two regions - the Republic of Mari El and the Chelyabinsk region. In these regions, there are large broiler farms - “Akashevskaya Poultry Farm” and “Healthy Farm,” he said. Also in the Chelyabinsk region such large broiler producers as the Ravis poultry farms and the agricultural holding SITNO work. As the representative of Healthy Farm clarified to “Agroinvestor”, the company does not experience any difficulties associated with accumulating stocks, its distribution channels are stable and constantly growing.
In this regard, it is not yet possible to talk about the outlined all-Russian trend of increasing residues and overproduction of pork, Nikitochkin estimates. “As a result, in the first half of 2018, an approximately stable level of prices for pork and poultry is expected with slight seasonal fluctuations,” the expert believes.
According to estimates of the information-analytical agency “IMIT”, during 2017, pork in Russia fell by 13.6%, the broiler chicken carcass - by 13.9%, although in the last month of the year they rose in price by 2.2% and 0.5%. “Thus, despite the December pre-holiday price increase, in general, in 2017 there was a decrease in the cost of pork and chicken. Saturation of the market with these types of meat and increased competition among producers, who increasingly had to resort to different types of stocks to increase demand for their products, pushed prices down, ”IMIT analysts say.
As a result of lower prices, meat consumption in Russia increased and, according to estimates by the NSS, for the year could reach 75 kg / person. against 73 kg / person. in 2016 Including poultry consumption should increase by 1 kg to 33.5 kg / person, pork - by 1.1 kg to 25.7 kg / person. According to Rosstat, in 2017 the share of pork in the total industrial production of meat was 34.5%, poultry meat - 56.4%, beef - 8.6%, lamb and goat meat - 0.3%.
Today’s Russia produces more meat than the RSFSR in the last years of the Soviet Union, but if in Soviet times 41% of meat products were beef, now 47% was chicken.
The agribusiness expert analysis center published interesting statistics on the changes in meat production in Russia. In 1991, another Soviet RSFSR produced 9.375 million tons of meat, by 2001 its production had more than doubled - to 4.477 million tons, but then it began to recover and grew every year. The Soviet level was reached at the turn of 2014-2015, and since then it has even been exceeded (10.333 million tons in 2017), but the balance structure has changed significantly. If in Soviet times and even in the 1990s, beef dominated it, now it is chicken meat. And the level of beef production not only did not reach the Soviet figures, but fell 2.5 times and continues to decline. The turning point in the trends - the “transition to chicken” occurred not so long ago - about 10-12 years ago.
The "shaft" of products, of course, is a good thing, but as far as the quality of its larger part is concerned, there’s nothing to say - it’s enough to familiarize yourself in practice in the nearest store. However, for the low-income strata of the population, even this, it is not known what the fed chicken became, in fact, the main source of animal protein.
Historian and journalist Pavel Pryanikov comments on the reasons for the Soviet deficit: "The USSR had to develop poultry farming as it is now. Feed the country with cheap chicken. Cattle were developed instead - it’s a huge failure 2.5 times less beef is produced" .
However, there are also big questions about the degree of truthfulness of the Soviet statistics - what percentage of the declared meat production was made up by registry - after all, the stores did not shock with abundance even in Moscow.
"Soviet level of meat production" - according to Soviet statistics? Proletarians ate karski barbeque, yes. "- writes Grigory Kolosov.
An impressive growth in the poultry industry has been achieved mainly due to the fact that Russia has opened up to the world - even the hatching egg is mainly imported, bloggers say.
“Growth in the poultry industry was ensured by imported veterinary preparations and work with genes. The USSR could not do anything in these sectors,” writes Stanislav Boch.